The Climate Impact Company U.S. season 1-3 ahead forecast valid for meteorological autumn 2022, winter 2022-23 and spring 2023 is issued. The forecast is based on a constructed analog (please see methodology on CIC client pages). High impact highlights include a warm autumn season featuring very dry weather in the Mid-south States. Autumn tropical cyclone risk is highest in Florida and the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Next winter is cold and snowy across the North-central U.S. while the South and East enjoy a mild season.

The intense heat in U.K. fades. However, GFS trends hotter/drier in the 15-day forecast. The anomalous heat remains widespread while shifting slightly eastward. The heat core moves into East/Southeast Europe to finish July.

Typical of Europe heatwaves, extreme heat from the African Desert is propelled northward by the subtropical ridge this time inspired by the combination of a strong Africa ITCZ and an offshore Southwest Europe low-pressure area. The southerly flow ahead of the low-pressure area guided an amplified subtropical ridge into Western Europe to deliver historic heat the past few days.

The Climate Impact Company U.S. CDD projection for the last week of July is 103 which is second hottest to 105 CDD observed in 2016 (using NOAA CDD data). The last week of July in 2011 is a close 3rd hottest from the last 20 years and along with 2016 and the 2022 projection the only last week of July to produce over 100 CDD.