Extremely dry weather was observed the last week of April across South-central to Coastal Brazil. The 10-day outlook maintains the dryness with high temperatures consistently in the 32-35C range. The dry pattern widens during the period.

The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone season forecast for 2024 is updated. Tracking the trend of ENSO and North Atlantic SSTA, the two primary predictors, is why the forecast is updated.

Siding with the AI 4Cast Net V2 forecast direction heading into mid-May. Why? Cooling of the western North Atlantic as previously stated last week. NCEP CFS V2 is the operational model capturing this philosophy. The model is substantially cooler than ECM. A marked cool change is indicated for the Midwest U.S. with a southern shift from Canada to the Mid-south States of the wet weather belt. A major change!

A super warm global ocean surface is in the news! However, not all oceanic zones are warm. Norte the 1-year change in the western North Atlantic. The western North Atlantic has cooled to near normal during mid-spring. The cooling waters foreshadow presence of an upper trough on the East Coast for much of May.