A tropical disturbance is forecast to form in the northeast Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday and drift southwestward and then west while intensifying to a tropical storm eventually making landfall (as a tropical storm) Saturday on the central Louisiana coastline. The preliminary forecast track is based on the highly reliable ECMWF model.

Despite approaching mid-summer, forecast confidence of the 2019 North Atlantic tropical season is not particularly confident and with good reason. Expected is the inhibiting influence of upper westerly shear across the tropical North Atlantic caused by El Nino holding number of hurricanes down BUT potentially offset by a forecast of a warmer than normal tropical North Atlantic. As it turns out, on July 6 the North Atlantic tropics have unexpectedly cooled and the El Nino is fading (and NOAA is more concrened about La Nina develping).

An amplified upper ridge crests over Central Europe this week causing extreme heat likely to break records and centered mostly on Spain and France where temperatures will exceed 100F. The peak strength of the heat wave is later this week. The heat begins to ease next Tuesday.

Ocean surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and East Pacific are monitored closely as the tropical cyclone season is underway. Of particular interest is the rapid warming of the North Atlantic in the vicinity of Bermuda during mid-June. Also note that the warmth associated with weak El Nino in the equatorial East Pacific is shifting toward the Dateline.