Europe Drought Worsens; Rhine River About to Close

Discussion: Europe drought is worsening as Warning/Alert level of drought is becoming widespread. The latest 15-day forecasts are both very warm to hot across Southwest to Central Europe (Fig. 1) and dry for most of Europe (Fig. 2) according to ECM ENS. The GFS is somewhat hotter including U.K. but skill scores identify ECM ENS as the best model across Europe during the past 2-4 weeks. GFS has routinely been too hot. According to reports, the Rhine River level is sufficiently low (Fig. 3) to require closing.

Fig. 1-2: The 12Z ECM rainfall forecast for the next 10 days trends wetter.

Fig. 3: Water level at various stations along the Rhine River with 10-day forecast added.