Upper trough settles on Western Europe. A colder pattern develops across most of Europe. The storm track stretches from Spain to Southeast Europe and Southwest Russia. As cold air increases, the storm track begins to produce snowfall. The snow cover will expand across much of Europe enhancing the incoming cold.

The daily Nino34 SSTA has cooled to -1.06C qualifying as a moderate La Nina signature. The cooling is remarkable with a 30-day change of a stunning -0.81C. The subsurface is as impressive as a strong cool anomaly intensified across the equatorial East Pacific and upper ocean heat east of the Dateline has cooled to a peak for the evolution of La Nina during 2024.

ECM has carried a wet bias with their 15-day operational outlooks throughout mid-to-late spring and early summer. Recently, GFS wet bias has (also) increased and is similar to ECM. Presented is an excellent opportunity for machine learning forecasts to compete with GFS and ECM as they may understand the wet bias and make adjustments to the operational forecast.

Yesterday’s year ahead climate forecast for North America reveals a dry climate pattern setting up across the northwest Great Plains to the Ohio Valley during APR/MAY/JUN 2025 expanding northward across the Canadian Prairies during JUL/AUG/SEP 2025. The dry pattern is accompanied by anomalous heat and implies potential for a large drought developing during the 2025 warm season.