The Climate Impact Company early April North Atlantic Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Forecast for 2022 indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes are expected. The forecast ranks in the top 10 most active seasons given the 1950-2021 climatology. The accumulative cyclone energy (ACE) index forecast is 135 which ranks the intensity forecast of the 2022 season at 20th most intense given the 1950-2021 climatology.

A major tornado outbreak for Mississippi/Alabama today accompanied by excessive rain with flash flood risk extending north to the southwest Tennessee Valley. Another severe weather/flooding event is indicated for early next week in the Mid-south States. Also, early next week an excessive hot weather events in in the forecast for California.

Late calendar winter was dry in East China wheat-growing areas raising concern regarding drought. However, due to presence of the Madden Julian oscillation in the far western Pacific during the past 10 days a wetter regime eased the dryness. New week 2-4 forecasts reveal the dryness returns!

This week, a transition to a sharp negative phase of the Scandinavia Index takes place. During -SCAND, an upper trough becomes dominant across northwest Eurasia. Initially, temperatures turn quite cold across Northern Europe/Northwest Russia featuring some arctic air. In the 6-10-day period the upper trough elongates into Southwest Europe and the attendant chill expands across all of Europe reaching Ukraine and Western Russia.