Canadian Duram crop samples show damage by wet weather according to a Reuters report issued yesterday. The damage is likely related to a dry start to summer ending very wet in August. The JUN/JUL/AUG 2025 precipitation anomalies are misleading indicating widespread dryness while the southern prairies were soaking wet in August.

Since mid-August, an upper trough settled over the East U.S. propelling upper-level westerly flow across the Gulf of Mexico extending to Cuba. The shearing westerly flow aloft has helped to keep this zone dry in the middle troposphere and produced an environment hostile to tropical development. The ECM ENS 500 MB anomaly forecast maintains the shearing westerlies across the Gulf of Mexico.

The North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is exceptionally strong during summer 2025 well-correlated to a semi-permanent upper-level trough across the same area recently budging eastward toward Europe the first half of September. Proximity of the trough to Europe has spawned heavy rains for late calendar-summer. The ECM ENS 10-day rainfall forecast indicates the emphasis of the heavy rain consolidates over France and vicinity.

In North America, the late summer 2025 weather pattern forecasts were most effective during the 6-10-day utilizing ECM ENS, traditionally the best operational model. In second place, AIFS ENS continued to score well since the July 1st debut. ECM ENS and AIFS ENS have routinely scored no. 1 and 2 for medium-range forecasts during mid-to-late calendar summer 2025.