The U.S. AG Belt remains arid most vividly displayed by the 14-day percent of normal rainfall analysis. The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals the strengthening Great Plains drought. All models remain very dry in the 15-day outlooks with the exception of the GFS offering patchy wet weather in the medium range.

At 5AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Milton was located at 24.5N/85.4W or about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Milton is moving northeast at 14 mph with top wind near 160 mph. Central pressure is 907 MB. Milton has maintained category-5 intensity longer than expected. The southwest flow aloft is moving Milton northeastward. However, the hurricane is concentric so weakening effects of shear on the hurricane have not started.

The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast remains consistent, turning Milton northeastward tonight, and then into the Tampa Area as a strong category-3 major hurricane around 1AM Thursday. The forecast track is a little slower than yesterday’s forecast.

Upper ridge patterns are well-amplified and centered on Northern Italy and West-central Russia. In-between is an upper trough brining wet weather to the drought region across Southwest Russia and much of the Black Sea region. The upper trough lingers into early November. Also, a look at optimum climate normal for Europe winter.