Presence of aerosol/dust extending westward via the trade winds from the African deserts is a suppressing factor on tropical wave development in the North Atlantic tropics. Currently, heavy dust is projected today into the Caribbean Sea while the origin in West Africa remains prominent.

The Indian Monsoon arrived on-time (June 1st). However, a much wetter than normal character has emerged likely to continue the remainder of June. Last week heavy rains affected the west coast, central and northeast India and the latest 15-day rainfall anomaly forecast by the GFS maintains excessive rainfall for much of the nation into early July.

Late May Europe soil moisture was scary-dry! However, early-to-middle June brought pattern change...a much wetter climate. 10-day forecasts maintain the wet weather pattern across Europe easing the drought risk present in late May.

Central U.S. seasonal soil moisture trend is notably drier. Occasional hot and dry weather events will accelerate the dryness. A period of hot weather is ahead late weekend and next week for the central and southern Great Plains further aggravating the drier soil trend for much of that region.