July 2022 Central U.S. Drought Scare

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Highlight: Evidence for very hot weather during mid-summer across the Great Plains increasing.

Fig. 1-2: The latest ECMWF and NCEP CFS V2 precipitation anomaly forecasts for July 2022 across North America.

Discussion: Evidence to support a dry (and hot) mid-summer climate forecast for North America in the Great Plains is increasing. The most recent NCEP CFS V2 and ECMWF “monthlies” outlook for July 2022 each indicate widespread anomalous dry climate for the entire Great Plains with disagreement for the Canadian Prairies (Fig. 1-2). The Northwest U.S. is also likely very dry and the wet bias is present due to monsoon thunderstorms over Arizona/New Mexico and across much of the East U.S. The supporting upper air pattern is most bold with amplified high pressure by the NCEP CFS V2 model (Fig. 3). The ECMWF upper air forecast indicates the core of high-pressure ridging is over the Northwest and Northeast U.S. (Fig. 4). The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast also indicates Great Plains dryness (Fig. 5) and a supporting upper ridge (Fig. 6).

Fig. 3-4: NCEP CFS V2 and ECMWF projected upper air forecast for July 2022.

Fig. 5-6: Climate Impact Company constructed analog temperature anomaly forecast for July 2022 and the accompanying upper air projection.