For now, the North Atlantic tropics environment is mostly not supportive of development. The mid-troposphere relative humidity (RH) for the middle third of July 24, 2025, is very dry across the Caribbean Sea into the Gulf of Mexico which is suppressing development. Sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) are higher than normal across the northwest Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, and Bahamas also not supportive of tropical development. +SLPA is also observed in the deep tropics. Another negative factor is the presence of the tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) since June maintained during the middle third of July.

Reported early today is a record number of high temperature days since March in China (Al Jazeera). Most recently, excessive heat has been observed across East-central China where temperature anomalies of +2C to +6C were observed July 16-22, 2025.

AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS is used operationally due to the much higher skill score compared to traditional operational models during the past 30 days. The outlook is considerably cooler across Eastern Europe where a wet pattern resides. Wet and cool weather extends to the Black Sea region.

The 2-week outlook across the U.S. features harsh high impact weather including a stretch of heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and local flooding from the Southern Canadian Prairies across the North-Central U.S. and through the Midwest States.