An active and intensifying transient equatorial Pacific MJO episode is likely to cause an expanding wet weather regime in South America by mid-March that includes parts of the Argentina summer 2022-23 drought area. Wet weather in Brazil may also expand.

Last week, Nino34 SSTA warmed to -0.3C which is neutral ENSO. Only the Nino4 region is at the La Nina threshold. The Nino3 SSTA warmed too exactly normal. The weekly observations maintain the trend of a slow decay of La Nina dating back to late last year.

ECMWF 30-day MJO forecast indicates and intense signature shifting through the eastern equatorial Pacific and into the tropical Atlantic during March. Normally, during early meteorological spring, MJO shifting into this region with intensity produces a cold U.S. upper trough pattern as indicated by ECMWF "Weeklies".

Most global SSTA forecasts reveal El Nino for the northern hemisphere summer of 2023 plus widespread marine heat waves in the mid-latitude oceans. If so, 2023 is likely the warmest year on record, a common occurrence during the past 10-15 years.