After a whopping 738 severe weather reports in the Midwest States yesterday with Illinois hardest hit, a large severe weather and windstorm shifts into the East U.S. today. Two bands of severe weather squalls cross the Mid-Atlantic, one this morning and another by early evening. Wind gusts >70 mph affect the central Appalachian States with gusts to 60 mph at the shoreline today into this evening. More high wind for New England tomorrow.

Another round of unusually intense severe weather is forecast for late this week and again in the extended-range across the East-central and Mid-south U.S. according to NOAA. The catalyst to the exceptionally strong severe weather is the increased low atmospheric moisture across the somewhat warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico and the persistent negative Pacific North America (-PNA) pattern propelling an energetic jet stream across Mexico to the Mid-south U.S.

The upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific is warming sharply. An old Kelvin Wave shifting eastward arrived on the northwest coast of South America the past 1-2 weeks and has caused steady impressive warming in the Nino12 SSTA region. A new Kelvin Wave has shifted east of the Dateline to about 145-140W longitude. The new Kelvin Wave is forecast to reach the northwest South America coast by early May.

Dynamic ENSO phase forecast models are indicating a full-tilt El Nino by August 2023. Implied is a tropical cyclone season in the North Atlantic basin possibly similar to the last full-throttle El Nino that suppressed North Atlantic activity. Below normal rainfall was observed during JUL/AUG/SEV 2015 across the Southern U.S., Gulf of Mexico, and western North Atlantic tropics.