After a vigorous windstorm on Thursday a colder regime settles over Europe and eventually most associated precipitation is snow. Eastern Europe to Interior Southeast Europe has snow on the ground by late month helping to enhance the chilly pattern. The week 2-4 forecast projects milder North Atlantic maritime flow in the extended range to scour away the chill.

The Nino SSTA regions (and subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean) indicate a warming trend in the already very warm central and east-central Pacific equatorial region (Nino34 and Nino4). Implied is an approaching peak of El Nino forecast by most dynamic models in December or January followed by weakening El Nino the first half of 2024.

Heavy rain along a low-pressure trough stretches through East Australia today. The wet pattern has no end in sight as a supporting upper-level low-pressure area coupled with the surface trough persists the remainder of November. Forecast models are in good agreement on a widespread 2-6-inch rainfall for Eastern Australia through the next 15 days.

A review of the just-issued NOAA/CPC long-lead probabilistic climate forecast for DEC-23 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2023-24 with the anomaly projections from Climate Impact Company plus initial insight into the summer 2024 forecast. NOAA and CIC are similarly warm in the East for winter 2023-24 while CIC is colder West. Both forecasts agree on a vigorous (mostly) Southern U.S. storm track.