The Nino34 SSTA warmed to +1.2C last week as oceanic El Nino strengthens to moderate intensity. The ENSO climate budged toward El Nino in July as supported by a 2-to-3-week period of a negative southern oscillation index (-SOI) although SOI has shifted into weak positive phase the past 2 days.

In 10-15 days, possible changes are looming. The global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) pattern may flip negative for the first time during the summer season signaling a slowdown in the upper air pattern. If so, recent much warmer GFS 11-15-day forecasts and the ECM 16-20/16-30-day forecasts may regenerate another fierce hot upper ridge pattern for mid-to-late August.

Yesterday’s rainfall needed to neutralize dry Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) analysis from NOAA/CPC revealed the Midwest U.S. Drought worsened last week. Short-term forecasts indicate searing heat risk increase and limited rainfall ahead into next week as the drought will continue to worsen.

Oceanic El Nino continues to slowly strengthen and is now at moderate intensity. Subsurface warming is convening in the eastern equatorial Pacific to provide more ammunition to strengthen El Nino. However, the sustained 1-2-month-long negative southern oscillation index required to generate an El Nino climate has not yet materialized.