The Climate Impact Company month 1-4 ahead outlook for the winter 2023-24 season is adjusted less warm due to a potential cold January. The forecast features above normal precipitation for Western Europe and West/Northwest Russia where above normal snowfall is likely.

Climate Impact Company summer 2023-24 precipitation forecasts for South America identify Central Brazil as an area likely to observe worsening drought. Currently, NOAA daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals widespread drought areas lingering in South America most focused on Chile, Argentina, and northern continent. Dryness also exists across many parts of Brazil. Of concern is deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficits caused by long-term dry climate shifting southward into Central Brazil. The combination of shallow and deep layer dry soils can lead to fast-evolving drought.

During the current warm AMO cycle, hurricanes are observed to intensify more rapidly when crossing over warm water. According to Andra Garner’s white paper “Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates” the number of category-1 hurricanes intensifying to a major hurricane within 36 hours has doubled in the modern warming of the North Atlantic era.

NOAA updated the solar cycle 25 forecast late last week. Solar cycle 25 is interesting, beginning much more active than expected and well ahead of the initial forecast. However, recent months have brought a slowdown in solar activity making the over-achieving character of early solar cycle 25 to question. The new NOAA projection is certainly stronger than the initial forecast. Additionally, the arrival of solar maxima 25 is faster.