A wet pattern remains in the forecast for Australia into early April. Upper air forecasts feature a semi-persistent upper trough across northwest continent. The upper trough produces instability coupled with warm SSTA surrounding the continent a regime develops capable of producing widespread heavy and consistent rains across much of Australia.

A gigantic swath of high wind and attendant Red Flag Warnings are issued this morning extending from the Great Plains and Texas to the Ohio and Tennessee Valley(s). The expansive high wind event is extremely effective at drying soil conditions. The evaporative drought demand index (EDDI) is highlighting the Midwest, Southeast, and Southwest as areas of potential drought development or strengthening of existing drought.

A primary concern is whether presence of dry-to-drought conditions across the eastern half of Europe to Southwest Russia and the Black Sea region will worsen mid-to-late spring and summer. The outlooks support intensification as the presence of upper-level ridging to warm and dry this region well-supported by the correlating SSTA forecasts.

A low-pressure system over Southwest Europe budged eastward the past couple days inducing a moist southerly flow into South and East Europe. The moist flow is enhanced by above normal moisture in the lower atmosphere propelled by the long-standing marine heatwave across the Mediterranean Sea. The heavy rain has caused flooding from Spain to Italy.