Based on a MEI-driven constructed analog, drought concern for MAR/APR/MAY 2024 are likely for Brazil, Southeast Asia, the Mid-south U.S., and developing in U.K. plus the Black Sea region to West-central Russia. During JUN/JUL/AUG 2024, drought is likely to continue in the Black Sea region to West-central Russia, the British Isles, Western Tennessee Valley, and emerge in the Northeast U.S. Dryness shifts south back into Argentina during JUN/JUL/AUG 2024.

The latest week 2-4 forecast by ECM needs adjustments across the southern half of the U.S. for the first half of January as a potent storm track generates locally chilly air (and snowfall) while the very warm pattern retreats farther north than indicated by the model.

A semi-permanent high-pressure system off the southeast cost of Brazil shifts eastward to Bolivia this week/weekend allowing wet weather to develop over East Brazil where the pattern of early meteorological summer has been dry. In the medium range, an upper trough forms off the East Coast of Brazil causing more heavy rain in this zone.

Deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomalies and their trend is an excellent “quick look” assessment of whether ongoing drought and drought potential is increasing or decreasing across the South America drought concern area in Brazil as meteorological summer 2023-24 has arrived.