A broad and steadily strengthening upper trough south of Australia gradually extends a vigorous storm track northward into southern continent followed by chilly air generation leading to <32F risk in Southeast Australia and parts of southwest continent.

The first month of meteorological summer 2025 was 7th warmest on record across the U.S. MUCH ABOVE normal temperature was observed in 19 states, essentially the West U.S., Northeast States, and Florida. Rhode Island observed their 2nd hottest June on record while West Virginia, Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware ranked in the top five all-time warmest.

During the past 30 days, the percent normal rainfall across Europe has become prohibitively dry. Consequently, soil moisture deficits have broadened and intensified. The anomalous temperature was extremely hot (3-7F) for west and south portions of Europe during the past 30 days helping to accelerate drought.

A semi-permanent upper-level low-pressure trough located over southeast New Mexico during early July entrained tropical moisture off the East Pacific Ocean and western Gulf of Mexico creating the perfect set-up for persistent heavy rains. The development of the semi-permanent low-pressure area was potentially related to the unusually wet monsoon pattern of early summer. The early July rainfall observations across Central Texas indicate widespread >10-inch regions with high spots exceeding 20 inches.