Comparing the CIC-CA summer 2025 outlook and the NOAA/CPC probabilistic summer 2025 outlook to establish confidence indicates a high probability of hot to very hot summer climate in the West, heavy rains in the Southeast, and a North-central to Interior Northwest U.S. drought.

Cold temperatures spread across Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Southwest Russia this morning forecast to return Thursday morning concentrated on Eastern Ukraine. Another pulse of cold shifts into Romania and Western Ukraine Friday morning. The cold slowly retreats northward this weekend.

March 2025 was the 6th warmest in the 131-year climatology. MUCH ABOVE normal warmth was observed across much of the Central and Northeast U.S. including top 5 all-time for Kansas and Nebraska. Only Florida and California were near normal in the contiguous 48 states.

Heading into Q2/2025 the primary crop concern for the northern hemisphere is expansion of the Southwest U.S. drought northeast and northward to affect spring wheat, hard red winter wheat, and western soybean/corn growing areas in the Great Plains. A large drought across the Southwest U.S. produces a climate feedback mechanism to the atmosphere enhancing subtropical high pressure ridging which is forced northward by a wet monsoon season in the Southwest U.S. mid-to-late summer.