A combination of zonal flow in the 1-5-day and 11-15-day period and titanic Southwest U.S. high pressure ridging in the 6-10-day period leaves the west and southwest Great Plains without rain and increasingly very warm in the latest ECM 15-day forecast. Texas to Oklahoma shift wetter in the 16-30-day period while the western Great Plains stay dry and very warm. U.S. hard red winter wheat becomes a hot spot for drought development.

The Climate Impact Company MAR-26 to FEB-28 ENSO phase forecast is based on a constructed analog utilizing upper ocean heat anomalies east of the Dateline, Nino34 SSTA, and southern oscillation index. The upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial East Pacific became immense during February and is the leading indicator of El Nino risk ahead.

The severe weather pattern continues today and into the weekend. Severe thunderstorms including a tornado risk reform across the southern Great Plains later today and tonight. A widening area of severe storms and tornado risk stretch across the eastern Great Plains and include Texas to the Midwest States tomorrow.

The U.S. weekly evaporative drought demand index (EDDI) valid for late February indicates parts of the U.S. most susceptible to drought or flash drought as the warm season arrives is the Gulf States, parts of the Southwest U.S., and central U.S. Corn Belt. If areas listed shifted into a dry climate as the warm season arrives, rapid drought development/intensification would generate in these zones. However, the U.S. precipitation pattern is forecast to change through the next 30 days featuring above too much above normal precipitation in Texas to the Ohio Valley in the latest 15-day outlook likely to continue in the week 3-4 period.