As of 5:30AM EDT, Reuters reports 158 deaths associated with series of flash flood events centered on Valencia on the East Coast of Spain. The extreme rain began earlier this week, and additional rainfall is forecast over the weekend. The cause of this extreme weather event is related to the prevailing sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern across the North Atlantic.

The subtropical jet is energized by the transient MJO and scoops low latitude moisture into the Central U.S. piling to 7+ in. in Southeast Kansas over the next 7 days. The rain should help raise the Mississippi River where low water has returned for a 3rd consecutive year.

Both Australia Bureau of Meteorology and Climate Impact Company project a short-lived -IOD regime weakening by late 2024. The weekly Nino34 SSTA is -0.5C and the most recent multivariate ENSO index is -0.7, each indicating borderline weak La Nina. During the past 30 years when -IOD and weak La Nina was present, the NOV/DEC precipitation pattern across Australia favored drier than normal climate for eastern sections.

During October, Northwest Argentina turned very wet. During the past week, the wet pattern in Argentina shifted slightly southward and remains intense. Meanwhile, a separate wet weather pattern has emerged during the past week in Brazil featuring drought suppressing heavy rains from East-central Brazil eastward to the coast.