The Climate Impact Company summer 2024 outlook valid for May through September is issued. The forecast is based on a transition from an El Nino to La Nina climate, warming of already very warm mid-latitude oceans, optimum climate normal, and anticipated drought zones.

Today’s 15-day precipitation forecast is produced using the new AIFS (artificial intelligence forecast system) generated by ECMWF. This is the first precipitation forecast generated by artificial intelligence made available on an experimental basis every 6 hours and available through CWG/Storm Vista.

Q1 of 2024 was warmer than normal in each of the 48 contiguous states including MUCH ABOVE normal for the Upper Midwest to Mid-Atlantic to New England States. Six states finished the 3-month period with their 2nd warmest Q1 on record, including Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, New York, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Nationally, Q1 was 5th warmest on record.

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) announced that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is forecast to return to the positive phase in May lasting several months into early Q4/2024. ABOM identifies +IOD years (since 1950) as 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2019, and 2023. In each of these analog years (except for 1961 and 1967) El Nino was present. Of the 10 analog years, 5 featured strong El Nino.