The Madden Julian oscillation has frequently shifted across the equatorial East Pacific/Atlantic during the past 12 months making available tropical moisture to be entrained by the U.S. storm track to drive what has been the wettest 12 months in history. In May the MJO was very intense and the catalyst to the extraordinary severe weather pattern across the U.S.

The Southeast is turning drier and the potential for flash drought increases as late spring anomalous heat and dryness arrives and lasts for at least 10 days.

The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates the latest forecast (in blue) is fading away from El Nino more rapidly and with good reason as upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean fades fast.

Another late season freeze for the northern Dakotas prolonging cold soil moisture temperatures followed by yeat another excessive rainfall event this week including severe weather episodes.