The more conservative view (by the HRRR model) indicates the heaviest snowfall in west-central Texas (6-10 in.) while GFS is much heavier northwest of Houston area (up to 10-12 in.). Given the strength of the upper trough and rapid cooling of the lower atmosphere late today/this evening the heavier (GFS) totals are favored!

Forecast models have shown (at times) a trail of snow storms across the East U.S. in recent days. Each model run varies, sometimes widely. How do you make an assessment for planning purposes given the variability of operational models? The mega-cluster ensemble accounts for ALL models including their prevailing skill level to put-together a daily “most likely” projection of the weather. The model also assigns a confidence level and identifies which operational model was used most influentially.

The first month of meteorological winter 2020-21 was much warmer than normal. HOWEVER, due to cold spikes related to increased snow cover or surface wind advecting over snow cover (and into the Southeast U.S.) plus above normal number of cloudy days much of the eastern third of the U.S. observed near to above normal heating degree days.

Dry soil conditions are widespread in the West and Central U.S. most profound in California, Utah, Texas and the Western Corn Belt. The driest seasonal change is across the Mid-South U.S. Fortunately, a wetter and more snowy pattern change is ahead for the Wet and Central U.S.