In recent days the Madden Julian oscillation has emerged across Indonesia. Due to the increased attendant heavy convection, the atmosphere has become increasingly supportive of tropical cyclone activity. In the West Pacific tropics Typhoon Nyatoh has developed. This system reaches category-2 tropical cyclone strength while turning north and northeast over the next couple days. MJO also spawned a tropical depression well northwest of Australia.

The adjusted climatology (including 2021) for North Atlantic tropical cyclones maintains the more active 30-year values compared to the longer-term 50-year values. The number of tropical cyclones each season nowadays averages close 15 whereas the 50-year climatology is somewhat lower at 12.6 and 11.9 for 1950-2021.

Regional SSTA patterns are attached to local weather regimes including Argentina/Brazil and Australia heading into meteorological summer in the southern hemisphere.

Given the tendency for Covid-19 spread with established cold weather regimes in high population areas the importance of cold weather monitoring has (of course) increased. The 15-day outlook for Europe identifies an established cold weather risk which could be enhanced by developing snow cover and supported by a super negative Scandinavia Index pattern centered on days 6-10 ahead!