A transient (warm) Kelvin Wave traversing the equatorial Pacific during late meteorological winter in the northern hemisphere warmed the East Pacific and caused La Nina to weaken. However, the Kelvin Wave is constricting and the East Pacific subsurface beneath the equator is cooling again. expect La Nina to regain strength into April.

The past couple days brought a northward surge of dust from the Sahara Desert to Southwest Europe reaching U.K. Dust storms over Southwest Europe are not unusual this time of year. However, the northern expanse and intensity of this event was exceptional. The northern surge of Sahara Dust was caused by a strong low-level southerly current of air across Northwest Africa in-between a small but potent upper trough on the Northwest Coast of Africa and an amplified upper ridge pattern over Northern Europe. The pattern is characteristic of the positive phase of the Scandinavia Index (+SCAND) regime.

Evidence to support a dry (and hot) mid-summer climate forecast for North America in the Great Plains is increasing. The most recent NCEP CFS V2 and ECMWF “monthlies” outlook for July 2022 each indicate widespread anomalous dry climate for the entire Great Plains with disagreement for the Canadian Prairies.

An east-shifting subsurface Kelvin Wave reached the northwest coast of South America during late FEB/early MAR leading to a rapid warming of the ocean surface in the Nino12 SSTA region. The core of the ongoing La Nina regime shifts westward. However, the warming in the east, may be a sign of La Nina's demise ahead.