Australia Observed A Wet 2022; Will 2023 Be Drier?

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Chart of the day: 2022 anomalous rainfall across Australia and water storage.

Discussion: 2022 has been a wet year across Australia. The catalyst to the wet climate was a brief but potent negative Indian Ocean Dipole (-IOD) and persistent La Nina climate. The wet corner has been across the southeastern quadrant of the continent. Water storage has recovered to near normal for many locations in East Australia although a few remain below normal due to the long-term drought that preceded the recent wet pattern inspired by the 3-year La Nina. The 2023 climate may revert to a drier character.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid January 2-8, 2023: Normally wet Northern Australia monsoon.

Discussion: A normally wet Northern Australia Monsoon is in effect. An upper trough invites some of that tropical moisture into Western Australia.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid January 9-15, 2023: Unusual drier shift.

Discussion: Potential for an east-shifting Madden Julian oscillation across the equatorial Pacific leaves Australia trending drier.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid January 16-22, 2023: Wet weather shifts westward.

Discussion: The eastward shifting MJO leaves Australia on the dry side. The Northern Australia wet monsoon is substantially weaker than normal. Anomalous heat appears across Western Australia and could be stronger.