Almost the entire equatorial Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal in the subsurface (upper ocean heat) except to the immediate east of the Dateline. The warming during the past 2-3 weeks is dramatic with a big assist from the Madden Julian oscillation and an eastward surging Kelvin Wave. Despite the eastern equatorial Pacific subsurface warming, the bulk of the upper ocean heat remains west of the Dateline as ENSO 2023 is looking more complicated.

As mid-spring passes, drought potential for late spring and summer 2023 in the northern hemisphere becomes more in focus.

Climate Impact Company projects a potential upper ridge over central North America during summer raising the risk of warmer/drier climate after a cool/snowy in the North-central U.S. Consequently, drought in the central and southwest Great Plains could expand northward.

The intense drought spread across the central and southwest Great Plains and into Texas worsened last week. The worsening condition in this region was observed in each climate division within the affected area except much of Kansas where intense drought remained steady, southeast Colorado, and the upper coast of Texas.