The stress on the public and infrastructure of the summer 2023 heat across the Gulf States was immense. And ideal source region for heat elsewhere, the U.S. ranked 3rd hottest in the 129-year climatology for JUL/AUG/SEP 2023. During that 3-month period, New Mexico, Texas, Louisiana, and Florida observed their hottest mid-to-late summer on record.

The JUL/AUG multivariate ENSO index (MEI) failed to indicate evolution of an El Nino climate despite the robust oceanic El Nino presence across the equatorial East Pacific. Consequently, adjustments of the ENSO 2023-24 forecast considering MEI indicate that despite a robust warm equatorial East Pacific SSTA regime continuing to strengthen during Q4/2023, the attendant El Nino climate is likely moderate.

The NOV-MAR 2023-24 cold season monthly HDD forecast for selected cities within the PJM-East and PJM-West zones are warmer than normal. Due to the tendency of warmer than normal climate across the Northern U.S. during an El Nino winter, deviations from the current forecast favor warmer (not colder) solutions.

In Australia, an unusually intense “renegade” low pressure area is forecast off the Southeast Australia Coast by early Thursday with central pressure 983 MB. Pressure that low will cause minimal hurricane wind gust potential across eastern Victoria and south coastal New South Wales. In this zone, 2-5 in. of rain is expected. The 15-day outlook continues to project a confined area of very heavy rain across Southeast Brazil.