An interesting conflict has emerged regarding phase of Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) for mid-2024. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology indicates a shift of the neutral IOD pattern back into positive phase by MAY/JUN. The positive phase remains in-place through the winter season. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast maintains neutral phase.

During March 2024, the sunspot number (SSN) was 104.9. The monthly value is surprisingly decreasing. The peak monthly SSN value as solar cycle 25 began maxima last year was 160 in July 2023. Because of the over-achieving sunspot number early in solar maxima 25, some forecasts were adjusted to produce record-strength maxima forecasts during solar cycle peak in 2025. However, the NASA forecast, which mirrored the solar cycle 24 signature appears to be on track with the sudden sharp decrease in SSN during March.

The cloud cover forecast using the most recent GFS forecast for the April 8 solar eclipse is updated. Texas and western New York have the poorest viewing. Best viewing continues across northern New England. The Ohio Valley viewing forecast is improving.

The Colorado State University North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season activity forecast reveals a dangerous projection featuring an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 210, sixth highest since 1950. The outlook projects 23 tropical storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The outlook is slightly more active that last week’s Climate Impact Company forecast, and the initial forecast issued last December by Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. (their update is issued on April 8).