Delta is strengthening steadily due to presence over 85-86F water, light shear and excellent upper ventilation. The improving environment allowing Delta to intensify is in-part due to the heat release of weakening Gamma. The heat release strengthened the Florida subtropical ridge which is now pushing Delta more quickly west-northwestward. The warmer mid-to-upper atmosphere has also caused the upper shear near Delta to ease. The position of the jet stream and upper shear axis across the western Gulf of Mexico coupled with the anti-cyclone over Florida has provided Delta with excellent upper ventilation to allow Delta to fully express itself as a category-2 hurricane.

Possibly the greatest influence on North America climate during the past 7 years is the evolution of the persistent very warm waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean referred to by climate scientists as the “warm blob”. The “warm blob” caused the 2013-14/2014-15 “polar vortex” winter seasons and the persistent Western U.S. drought of recent years plus many other high impact climate regimes most perilous to North America and particularly the U.S.

Recent helpful research published in the AMS Journal of Climate identifies deep layer soil moisture deficits as a potential catalyst to future drought (and flash drought during the warm season). Northern hemisphere summer has ended BUT there area significant deep layer soil moisture shortages likely to cause Southwest U.S. drought to expand to the central and southern Great Plains. Similarly, emerging deep layer soil moisture anomalies in Southwest/West-central Russia foreshadow intensifying drought ahead.

La Nina is intact and plenty of subsurface eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean cool water is present to sustain La Nina. Forecast models indicate La Nina peaks later this year. Interestingly, a reversal toward a weak El Nino next summer is also indicated.