Already three tropical cyclones have formed in the northern hemisphere before the official June 1 start to the tropical cyclone season. Warmer-than-normal ocean water played a key role in leading to the formation of Arthur east of Florida, rapid intensification of Vongfong to a category 3 tropical cyclone before striking the Philippines and emergence of a category 5 tropical cyclone (Amphan) in the Bay of Bengal.

The lack of rainfall across the west/southwest Great Plains continues. The result is the development of D3/D2 drought in southwest Kansas which is expanding. The dryness in this zone features BOTH shallow and deep layer moisture deficits making this region susceptible to intense flash drought if hot weather over a period of 7-10 days develops during the summer season.

An area of shower activity across Cuba is forecast to slowly expand and gain intensity the next few days. By the weekend a low pressure area forms in the western Bahamas and drifts slowly northward. There is a 35% chance that the system is sufficiently organized to transition into a minimal tropical storm (Arthur) early next week while continuing a northeastward drift eventually accelerating out to sea.

A leading indicator of ENSO phase change is a sudden change in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface temperature anomaly analysis. The latest analysis by NOAA/CPC indicates a DRAMATIC late April/early May cooling east of the Dateline. The risk of La Nina developing in AUG/SEP/OCT 2020 as indicated by several forecast models is well-supported by this cooler subsurface Pacific diagnostic.