A Hot Summer Ahead for the U.S.

SSTA Pattern Heading Toward Neutral ENSO
03/15/2021, 11:52 am EDT
The Mid-summer 2012 Flash Drought in the Central Great Plains
03/22/2021, 9:40 am EDT
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NOAA updates long-lead forecasts. Summer outlook similar to CIC constructed analog. Looks like drought expansion into Great Plains into summertime.

Fig. 1-2: NOAA/CPC summer temperature and precipitation outlook.

Discussion: Today NOAA/CPC issued new long-lead probabilistic climate forecasts. Of interest, is the summertime outlook. The temperature probability forecast indicates above normal risk of anomalous warmth for all states during JUN/JUL/AUG 2021 with highest risk across the Southwest States (Fig. 1) which is the best source region to generate anomalous heat which can affect all of the U.S. The precipitation forecast for meteorological summer is wetter than normal on the East Coast due to the persistent anomalous warm water just offshore (Fig. 2). Meanwhile a dry climate is forecast to emerge in the Great Plains. The dry climate forecast forces NOAA/CPC to expand drought risk into the Great Plains in the seasonal outlook issued today (Fig. 3). The NOAA/CPC outlook is similar to the Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for summer 2021 (Fig. 4-5).

Fig. 3: NOAA/CPC seasonal drought outlook.

Fig. 4-5: Previously issued Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast for temperature/precipitation anomalies for JUN/JUL/AUG 2021.