Despite the cold ending to meteorological winter the overall U.S. temperature rank for the just-ended winter season was 29th warmest of 127 years which is in the top 25% warmest. The Central and southeast U.S. were temperate except for chilly Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas plus warmer-than-normal Florida. California and Maine were very warm while the remainder of the northern tier states were warmer than normal.

A spike in solar activity around the beginning of 2021 descended sharply in February. However, the overall trend of solar activity is upward as Solar Cycle 25 has initiated.

As a reminder, the reason the MJO is tracked is due to its presence with intensity almost always leads to weather extremes including major storms at the longitude of the MJO location frequently with upstream/downstream (in the middle latitudes) effects. The arctic outbreak in February was triggered by emergence of an active MJO pattern near the Dateline.

The preliminary 2021 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is attached. The outlook is more active than normal featuring 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 3 intense hurricanes with an ACE index of 122. The climate conditions feature neutral ENSO and a North Atlantic tropical/subtropical basin not quite as warm as last year.