Last week the Nino34 SSTA zoomed past the La Nina threshold (-0.5C) to -0.9C. The subsurface has also significantly cooled. If this trend continues, La Nina onset would be announced by early October.

Henri weakened to a tropical storm this morning moving across cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. Henri was a bit of an under-achiever while over warm waters south and east of the Gulf Stream yesterday. Therefore the weather and storm surge into Long Island and New England still produces hazards but less so than indicated yesterday.

A wet spring is ahead for Brazil which is much-needed rainfall given the drought condition. One catalyst to the wet climate pattern is the strong negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode.

California and the rest of the West Coast plus Nevada observed their hottest July on record. Meanwhile, New York and Massachusetts observed their wettest July on record. Overall, the U.S. ranked 6th wettest and 13th warmest given the 127 year climatology in July.