According to multi-variate ENSO index (MEI), analogs since 2000 having lengthy 2-year-plus La Nina signatures have been slow change phase and sometimes remain in weak La Nina. In 2022, based on the MEI analog there is a 2-in-3 chance ENSO is neutral or weak La Nina the second half of 2022 while El Nino risk is 1-in-3 chance.

An amplifying high-pressure ridge over Argentina is likely to span extreme heat beginning early next week and intensifying throughout the week. High temperatures are routinely in the 100’s early next week across Argentina. However, searing record-breaking 110’s is projected for middle of next week. The extreme heat lasts to Monday, January 17th shifting to northern Argentina.

Arctic cold is established over Western Canada into the Northern U.S. and snow cover is expanding. Recent model runs have removed this arctic air by the middle third of January. But arctic air is very difficult to dissipate. Warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast leads to sea level rise which causes any onshore flow to quickly push a flooding risk.

A conservative U.S. drought forecast is most-focused on West-central to Mid-south U.S. drought expansion/strengthening while also strengthening drought from the Carolinas to Florida. The “caveat” (and more extreme scenario) forecast projects a wider drought stretching across the southern half of the U.S. and possibly into the Western U.S. Corn Belt.