Fig. 1-3: Hottest last week of July since 2002 with the Climate Impact Company projection for July 22-28 (red) and a comparison between U.S. temperature anomaly forecasts by ECMWF for July 22-28, 2022 and verified July 22-28, 2016.
Discussion: The Climate Impact Company U.S. CDD projection for the last week of July is 103 (Fig. 1) which is second hottest to 105 CDD observed in 2016 (using NOAA CDD data). The last week of July in 2011 is a close 3rd hottest from the last 20 years and along with 2016 and the 2022 projection the only last week of July to produce over 100 CDD. During July 22-28, 2016 the super-hot PJM sector was chiefly responsible for 105 CDD for the U.S. some 30 CDD higher than the (NOAA) 3-year normal (Fig. 2). The ECMWF “weeklies” approximates the July 22-28, 2022 U.S. temperature anomaly scheme stressing Central U.S. heat especially for SPP and ERCOT while the Northeast U.S. is hot but tempered in the Mid-Atlantic region (Fig. 3).