The U.S. outlook to close January and through the first third of February is trending less cold. The primary reason is an increased westerly component aloft in the medium-range forecast easing the cross-polar flow of arctic air and increasing the milder Pacific influence on the U.S. thermal pattern. As a result, heating degree days forecasts are trending lower.

An impressive upper-level low-pressure trough rolls across Southern Europe the next week to 10 days delivering locally cold weather to Southwest Europe to France and gradually across much of Southern Europe. The upper trough combines with still unusually warm Mediterranean Sea SSTA to produce excessive rains across this region into early February extending to Southeast Europe.

Over the next 2-3 weeks a gradual expansion of snow cover for much of the northern half of the U.S. is expected. Meanwhile, stratospheric warming may shift from the Eurasian side of the North Pole to North America spawning arctic air. Forecast confidence is LOW for that part of the forecast. However, expanding snow cover will invite a cold February ahead.

Excessive heat haunts the Argentina drought area this week. However, there are some heavy thunderstorms indicated for Central Argentina late this week due to a weak upper-level impulse and possibly more substantial rain next week as a cold front moves into Argentina.