Western Europe Drought Re-emerging; Patchy Beneficial Rain in Latest Week 2-4 Outlook

Strong Madden Julian Oscillation Ends La Nina
03/12/2023, 12:49 pm EDT
-PNA climate pattern regenerates, tough to break.
03/17/2023, 8:31 am EDT
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Chart of the day: Latest Europe Drought Analysis

Discussion: The latest European Drought Observatory (EDO) drought analysis across Europe identifies rapidly intensifying drought in Ireland, steadily strengthening drought in U.K. and France and Northwest Africa. As of March 1, 2023, the drought in Turkey has rapidly strengthened. EDO is anticipating an ending to drought in parts of west and southwest France.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid March 20-27, 2023: Europe trend is warmer.

Discussion: Previously, an amplified upper trough was forecast across Northwest Eurasia. In the adjusted outlook, the upper ridge pattern over the Black Sea region expands westward and the Northwest Eurasia trough retreats northward and is weaker. Consequently, the storm track across France to the Baltic Nations is weaker and much of Europe turns somewhat warmer.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid March 27-April 3, 2023: Warmer forecast, wet trend may be overdone.

Discussion: The forecast trend is warmer east of Black Sea and across Southwest Europe where upper ridge patterns reside. ECM may be too wet in the Black Sea region and the Baltics eastward into Russia.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid April 3-10, 2023: Support for warmth is farther north than model indicates especially in Russia.

Discussion: The outlook remains very warm east of Black Sea although supporting high pressure is farther north. The upper air pattern is more supportive of the showery regime indicated from the Northern Black Sea to Caspian Sea region. Europe is marginally dry and warm.