Important pattern changes are ahead including arrival of heavy rain and severe weather in the Great Plains the next few days while in Brazil the prevailing wet pattern across Southeast Brazil shifts to the northeast part of the nation. Europe remains very warm, but an evolving cold air mass centered on the Caspian Sea area will broaden in the extended-range and ease the Europe warmth and cause a cold regime to develop in the Black Sea region. In Australia, the extreme rainfall pattern has eased.

During the past 2-4 weeks waters south and southeast of Greenland have cooled by 2-5C. Return of the semi-permanent (2013-2022) North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) is generating. The cooler SSTA change foreshadows an evolving potent upper-level low-pressure trough south of Greenland for the first half of November.

Wet to very wet climate has dominated southwest and interior southeast Brazil during the past 90 days. The culprit has been a semi-permanent (wet) upper-level low-pressure trough over Southeast Brazil. In Novmber, the trough becomes more migratory and forces the wetter climate into Northeast Brazil while Southern Brazil and Argentina have a tendency for drier than normal climate.

Last week excessive rainfall (6-8 in.) was observed over parts of northeast News South Wales and southeast Queensland. According to ECM, the next round of storms will deliver similar rainfall amounts focused on Victoria over the next 10 days causing more flash flooding.