The daily southern oscillation index crashed to -3.6 earlier today. The daily -SOI value is the lowest since Aug. 17, 2022, a one-day event. The last very negative SOI regime dates back to June 2020. The -SOI may last a few days due to passage of Madden Julian oscillation episode. Moderate-to-strong La Nina presence may weaken slightly during this transaction.

Will La Nina end during early 2023 as most dynamic/statistical models indicate? We’ve faced this question at the same time in 2021 and 2020. On each occasion, dynamic/statistical models were satisfied that the preceding La Nina would be compensated for by El Nino the following year. Instead, multivariate ENSO index maintained a strengthening La Nina climate.

Tropical cyclone season initiated on Nov. 1 in Australia. Early season tropical cyclones are rare but expected this season due to the very warm SSTA north and northeast of the continent. Meanwhile, -IOD is expected to fade helping to lower risk of excessive rainfall events for Australia.

Important pattern changes are ahead including arrival of heavy rain and severe weather in the Great Plains the next few days while in Brazil the prevailing wet pattern across Southeast Brazil shifts to the northeast part of the nation. Europe remains very warm, but an evolving cold air mass centered on the Caspian Sea area will broaden in the extended-range and ease the Europe warmth and cause a cold regime to develop in the Black Sea region. In Australia, the extreme rainfall pattern has eased.