The Climate Impact Company ENSO Outlook for 2025 indicates La Nina will continue through Q1/2025 and weaken during Q2/2025 followed by neutral ENSO. Late in 2025, forecast confidence is low as a weak El Nino could emerge, ENSO remains neutral, or a second La Nina generates. The DEC-24 subsurface equatorial East Pacific cooled dramatically and trails only 2008 and 2010 for coolest upper ocean heat anomalies during December for all La Nina events this century.

During DEC-24, the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline produced a sharp drop in upper ocean heat. The observation is by far the coolest of 2024, a year when La Nina has struggled to develop. The dramatic subsurface cooling coupled with increased trade winds helped the Nino34 SSTA surge to a moderate-strength La Nina-like value of -1.1C Christmas Week. However, since that time waters have warmed slightly.

The Southeast Coastal Region of Australia was very dry in both DEC-24 and OCT/NOV/DEC-24. Otherwise, precipitation has averaged above normal to excessively wet across many parts of the continent during that time. Helping to aggravate the Coastal Southeast Drought is anomalous warmth during Q4/2024 which became somewhat hotter than normal for East-central and Southeast Australia during DEC-24. The anomalous heat accelerated the drying of soil. Consequently, a massive bushfire regime has developed from Victoria to New South Wales.

Upper ridge pattern evolves across Europe mid-to-late January and supports a warmer reversal in the previous chilly forecast. Additionally, due to the high pressure a somewhat drier than normal climate is forecast for January as storminess shifts to West-central Russia.