Checking drought concern areas heading into May 2025 reveals dry-to-drought conditions across the Southwest U.S., parts of the Central U.S. plus the Mid-Atlantic States to Florida. Drought across Europe to Southwest Russia is expanding. Ongoing drought in Brazil continues while Northern Argentina drought has strengthened. Southeast China drought remains intense.

Alignment between NOAA/CPC probability forecasts and the constructed analog prepared by Climate Impact Company is in close agreement for precipitation patterns for meteorological summer 2025 into September 2025. Forecast confidence is above average on two high impact climate regimes which is a significant drought centered on Iowa (and vicinity) and land-falling tropical cyclone risk in the northeast Gulf of Mexico region. The evolution of each risk peaks in August and September.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast shifted much cooler for meteorological winter 2025 across Australia. The catalyst to the outlook is an evolving negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole while neutral ENSO continues. The upper air features a persistent upper ridge across the warming waters west of Australia with a compensating semi-permanent chilly trough over Australia.

Through the next 5 days, the Black Sea region including Ukraine is exceptionally warm although flipping much cooler as a cold front arrives during the 6-10-day period when the 32F<0C line shifts south almost reaching Ukraine and Southwest Russia crop areas.