The late summer season drought in the Midwest States is strengthening. Dry-to-drought conditions have also developed and are intensifying in the Gulf Coast and Northeast regions. The late summer new drought generation has caused a shift in U.S. regions observing drought from 45% in mid-August to nearly 70% during late September.

The primary weather effects/hazards on the Southeast U.S. Coast remains heavy rain but adds a long duration strong easterly wind flow likely to raise havoc on coastal beaches with extensive erosion and inland flowing ocean water through river inlets flooding areas well inland. The onshore wind flow/accelerating water rise problem lasts well beyond the immediate storm as strong high pressure over the northeast maintains strong east wind through next week.

ECMWF forecasts heavy rain effects from Imelda early next week followed by a second event in the 11-15-day period. Each event combines for widespread flooding risk in the 15-day forecast.

The tropics are likely to activate to finish September extending well into October. So far, 7 tropical storms and 2 hurricanes have generated, and seasonal outlooks projected a minimum of 13 tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. Operational models project 3 events in the 15-day outlook.