The equatorial subsurface East Pacific has warmed significantly and oceanic La Nina demise is ahead for late winter. La Nina climate is likely to last longer, lasting until mid-to-late spring. We’re entering the “springtime prediction barrier” for ENSO forecasts. Recent research has revealed that already low skill of ENSO forecasts made at this time of year has worsened.

The GFS 1-7-day forecast indicates expansive cold to very cold weather enhanced by widespread above normal snow cover. Both GFS and ECM agree that arctic air becomes involved in the 8-14-day period adhering to East Europe and West Russia. Snow cover is above normal as indicated by GFS for midday today and increases/deepens over the next 2 weeks.

The outlook for JAN-26 is cold. The first half of JAN-26 is cold for most of Europe (except Portugal/Spain). The cold is stronger than the 30-year normal, especially East Europe. The Europe-West chill is slightly colder than last year and much colder than the last 2 mid-winter regimes for Europe-East.

The evolving stratospheric temperature anomaly pattern during the first half of January is warming across Eurasia and cold in North America, the direct opposite regime of early meteorological winter. Beneath the high variation in stratospheric temperature, the troposphere (below) responds by warming North America while very cold air is ongoing in Europe and develops in Siberia.