The Climate Impact Company ENSO forecast indicates a weak El Nino ahead for meteorological summer 2023. However, the subsurface equatorial Pacific is warming rapidly and the aggressive El Nino forecasts by dynamic models are slowly gaining credibility.

During the past 7 days the U.S. precipitation pattern observed a widening dry regime featuring little or no precipitation across most of the U.S. including the ongoing D3/D4 drought in the central and southwest Great Plains to Texas. The only recent wet periods in the Central U.S. were Feb. 26-Mar. 4 and Mar. 19-25 when heavy amount stayed just east of the drought zone. Consequently, the drought condition is increasingly aggressive from Nebraska to Kansas to northwest and west-central Texas .

Looking at the history of stratosphere/troposphere patterns following major eruptions of Shiveluch there is no apparent consistent reaction. The lack of definable climate reaction may be due to water as expansive downwind of the Kamchatka Peninsula.

The Q1/2023 state-by-state temperature rankings were controlled by the effect on climate by very cool SSTA off the West Coast (causing a chilly West U.S. JAN/FEB/MAR) while warm SSTA of the western North Atlantic Ocean ran parallel to the anomalous warm temperatures across the South and East U.S. In fact, the entire Southeast U.S. observed a record warm Q1/2023.