As meteorological summer unfolds, concern regarding Brazilian drought is ongoing. One steady development in recent weeks is the tendency for forecast models to over-forecast rainfall in the medium-range particularly in the 11-15-day period. During the past 7 days, the wet bias has increased.

The rainfall pattern during the past 30 days is very wet in Southeast Brail/Northeast Argentina and Western Brazil while most of the remaining sections of Brazil are dry. The influence of this regime plus the longer-term climate is to produce deep (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomaly deficits across Northern Brazil, Southwest Brazil, and Interior East Brazil.

ECM “weeklies” indicate development of a stormy and cold upper trough in the Central/East U.S. as the middle third of January arrives. Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecasts support this projection. Recent positive phase reflection index also supports this potential pattern change.

November 2023 ranked 19th warmest on record given the 129-year climatology. New Mexico and Nebraska ranked MUCH ABOVE normal temperature while the remainder of the West and Central States were warmer than normal. The South and East U.S. were close to normal.