The Indian Ocean tropical waters are very warm compared to normal. Recently, the eastern Indian ocean tropics have warmed significantly and are now warmer than the western Indian Ocean tropics. Analogs show a similar regime following mature El Nino phase during February 1998, 2010, and 2016. What followed during MAR/APR/MAY was a precipitation climate reminiscent of negative Indian Ocean dipole.

The estimated U.S. gas population weight HDD for the 2023-24 cold season (NOV-MAR) is 3478 HDD (Fig. 1). The value represents the 5th warmest cold season of this century. The 3 warmest cold seasons of this century in the U.S. were 2001-02 (3345 HDD), 2011-12 (3224 HDD), and 2015-16 (3269 HDD).

Current soil moisture conditions across primary agriculture regions feature wet conditions in Europe/Western Russia and much of Asia. Western Australia is in drought while eastern sections are unexpectedly wet despite the El Nino summer. Argentina trend is wetter again while many parts of Brazil stay in drought. In the Midwest U.S. the 2023 drought is hanging on.

AI FORECASTNET V2 is forecasting a new arctic air mass generating over Alaska and Western Canada due to additional stratospheric warming in the medium range. A careful eye on whether this new arctic mass may release into the Western U.S. in the extended range. Meanwhile, despite the warmth in U.S. and Europe for late winter, much of Asia is quite cold!