ALERT drought conditions are widespread across the Black Sea region and worsening during late summer. Drought is widespread from Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia. Slowly, the week 2-4 outlook erodes the high pressure causing the accelerating drought during late meteorological summer.

The persistent +SOI, enhanced by MJO, is causing eastern equatorial Pacific trade winds to increase. Subsurface cool waters in the equatorial Pacific are beginning to up-well to the surface. The Nino34 SSTA is now -0.13C after dropping 0.27C during the past 7 days.

Dynamic models and to a degree AI outlooks have produced consistent too warm medium-range forecasts in the U.S. during summer 2024. The most likely issue with dynamic models is unexpected cooler SSTA either side of the U.S. causing mid-summer troughs suppressing heat risk.