The Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast shifted much cooler for meteorological winter 2025 across Australia. The catalyst to the outlook is an evolving negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole while neutral ENSO continues. The upper air features a persistent upper ridge across the warming waters west of Australia with a compensating semi-permanent chilly trough over Australia.

Through the next 5 days, the Black Sea region including Ukraine is exceptionally warm although flipping much cooler as a cold front arrives during the 6-10-day period when the 32F<0C line shifts south almost reaching Ukraine and Southwest Russia crop areas.

The recent cold wave across Southeast Europe to Turkey was caused by a polar vortex generation likely related to stratospheric warming in the polar region of the past 6 weeks. Another intense trough spins out of that regime and brings heavy rain to Southwest and South Europe through the next 10 days.

A late season cold wave has produced significant crop damage to the Eastern Europe/Black Sea/Turkey/Southwest Russia region. The farthest east cold spike was April 10-11 causing the worst freeze since 2014 in Turkey. The peak cold during April 7-9 was across Romania and Ukraine. Coldest mornings during the freeze events were in the -10’sC!