The effect of the Middle East War on energy supply and prices increases the value of U.S. cooling degree day projections for the 2026 warm season. Provided is a monthly discussion of expectations and charts for each NOAA/EIA region of the U.S.

The latest 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast by ECM unloads heavy rain on Argentina. The wet forecast is supported, at least through the next 10 days, by an upper-level low-pressure trough off the Chilean Coast where SSTA continue much above normal adding to the risk of potential significant rainfall.

About 75% of the U.S. is in a dry-to-drought soil moisture condition as meteorological spring arrives. Combining the month of February during 2000, 2012, and 2025 yields a similar Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) regime to FEB-26.

The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal rainfall forecast indicates an evolving storm track stretching across the Mediterranean Sea and reaching the Middle East. The wet weather pattern which also affects North Africa is supported by an elongated upper-level low-pressure trough.