The outlook across Europe trends hotter and drier. The primary change is extending the heat and dryness through the 11-15-day period. All Europe crop areas are affected. In the U.S., the Corn Belt observes weather extreme with period sof heavy rain and hot temperatures.

Simultaneous heatwaves affecting high population regions of the U.S. and Europe are indicated by the 12Z GFS for the 6-10-day period. The heatwave continues in the 11-15-day period anchored over the Central/Midwest U.S. and Western Europe (Fig. 3-4).

Tropical Disturbance 96L is benign. However, tropical cyclone models indicate a west to northwest track with development to a tropical storm this weekend. Extended-range forecasts indicate potential for 96L to become a hurricane meandering off the Northeast Coast later next week. In the 6-10-day period, both GFS and ECM indicate significant tropical cyclone risk in the northeast Caribbean Sea and central North Atlantic tropics.

Neutral ENSO remains and the recent cooling trend toward La Nina temporarily slows. Once into the second half of August, +SOI is likely to return. A trend toward La Nina is indicated for Q4/2025. Whether the Nino34 SSTA can shift sufficiently cool and stay consistent to initiate La Nina is in question.