The Southeast is turning drier and the potential for flash drought increases as late spring anomalous heat and dryness arrives and lasts for at least 10 days.

The NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast indicates the latest forecast (in blue) is fading away from El Nino more rapidly and with good reason as upper ocean heat in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean fades fast.

Another late season freeze for the northern Dakotas prolonging cold soil moisture temperatures followed by yeat another excessive rainfall event this week including severe weather episodes.

A large stretch (from the Dateline to tropical Africa) of tropical convection associated with the Madden Julian oscillation coupled with high latitude high pressure blocking (negative arctic oscillation) have combined to produce more extreme weather events. Included is a record 87F observed in Northwest Russia this past Sunday.