Dynamic global SSTA forecast models including NCEP CFS V2, NMME and GFDL are suddenly forecasting La Nina cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean for AUG/SEP/OCT 2019. The possible cause for this sudden change picked up by most global models is the rapid cooling off the West Coast of South America the past few weeks forced northward into the East Pacific tropics by the reactivated Humboldt Ocean Current. The just-ending El Nino warm waters shift west to the Dateline. Interestingly, if the La Nina cooling forecast is less dramatic an El Nino Modoki may form.

During the past 3 months the number of large regions of soil moisture change across the globe favored drier conditions (18) versus wetter adjustments (11). Currently, the most profound drought areas stretch across Canada which is mostly unchanged during the past 3 months except drier into Northwest Territories, northern and western Europe which expanded east into Western Russia, a strengthening intense dry region in northeast Russia and ongoing drought which gained intensity since March in southwestern Africa and much of Australia.

During the past several weeks a very La Nina looking SSTA pattern has emerged off the west coast of South America as the Humboldt Current is actively churning to the surface cold subsurface water and surging that chill toward the equatorial region. The influence on ENSO forecast models is to cause suppression of the weak El Nino and introduce a La Nina risk later this year.

A tropical disturbance is forecast to form in the northeast Gulf of Mexico later Wednesday and drift southwestward and then west while intensifying to a tropical storm eventually making landfall (as a tropical storm) Saturday on the central Louisiana coastline. The preliminary forecast track is based on the highly reliable ECMWF model.