Emerging New Issue in the Gulf of Mexico

Discussion: Hurricane Sally is inland and will weaken to a tropical storm this afternoon. The attendant heavy rain is in the northeast quadrant of the storm relative to forward movement and spread well inland across the southern half of Alabama and southwest Georgia. Preliminary radar estimate of rainfall is in the 10-20 in. range for the eastern half of coastal Alabama and the far western Florida Panhandle.

Meanwhile another area of concern has evolved in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. NOAA/NHC indicates tropical cyclone risk is 40% within the next 48 hours and >60% after 48 hours. The midday GFS develops this system into a tropical cyclone Friday by midday just north of the central Bay of Campeche. Unclear is whether this system sits in the west-central Gulf of Mexico into early weekend or drifts north toward Louisiana. In either case a strengthening system is likely. This system would have a chance of becoming a hurricane this weekend if remaining in the Gulf of Mexico. A north-northeast track to bring another disruption to oil infrastructure is certainly possible.

Teddy is forecast to become a major hurricane which drifts toward and across Bermuda on Monday.