Forecast confidence is increasing in regard to negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole developing for Australian winter which supports a wet climate across most Australian crop areas.
Forecast trend of many operational forecast models is too lift the excessive rainfall/flash flood and severe weather pattern established across the Gulf region farther north to the Midwest U.S. extending to the Northeast Corridor to finish April and begin the month of May.
Another California upper trough has shifted east, similar to last week at this time and the same result will occur…entrainment of unusually warm Gulf of Mexico moisture (into the trough) and catalyst for another exceptional severe weather/excessive rainfall event.
An emerging negative Indian Ocean Dipole for JUL/AUG is (now) forecast by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. -IOD favors a wetter winter climate pattern across Australia likely easing any remaining drought across the continent.