The hottest July on record was observed in California. An upper-level ridge in-between a low-pressure area in the central Great Plains and south of Alaska enhanced by the influence of a marine heat wave shifting into the northeast Pacific were catalysts to the record heat.

The southern Great Plains remain at risk of flash drought through late August due to mostly dry and potentially very hot weather. The Southwest U.S. including Texas is also very hot and dry.

Climate diagnostics continue to indicate lack of a push toward La Nina. In July, the southern oscillation index was in a weak El Nino phase for the second consecutive month while subsurface upper ocean heat is only marginally cool. Using analogs, the ENSO forecast for the remainder of 2024 and possibly 2025 is neutral phase.

The most destructive and life-threatening aspect of a tropical cyclone is flooding. Debby brings a gigantic area of excessive rainfall and attendant flash flood risk to the Southeast and East U.S. this week. 2-3 feet of rain is possible in parts of the Southeast U.S. as Debby stalls after moving inland.