A major drought is in-place across Southeast Europe and Western Turkey. Drought ALERT is widespread in these areas according to the Europe Drought Observatory (EDO). The NOAA/CPC daily soil moisture analysis identifies the Southeast Europe drought extension to Southwest Russia including most of the Black Sea region.

During the past few weeks, Saharan Dust propelled west and southwestward from Northwest Africa by easterly trade winds has increased. Visible satellite images from earlier today easily identify the dust clouds as light gray east of the Caribbean Sea.

Deep layer soil moisture deficits indicate the primary target for developing harsh drought currently located across the east/south Great Plains, parts of the Missouri and Tennessee Valley(s), and the Mid-Atlantic region.

The subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean cooled significantly during MAR/APR 2024 providing a promising catalyst for La Nina development during the second half of 2024. However, the cooling is reduced by 50% during the past 2 months and combined with a persistent neutral southern oscillation index suggests the current neutral ENSO phase is likely to persist with weak La Nina still possible but at reduced risk.