05/11/2020, 12:24 pm EDT
A leading indicator of ENSO phase change is a sudden change in the equatorial East Pacific subsurface temperature anomaly analysis. The latest analysis by NOAA/CPC indicates a DRAMATIC late April/early May cooling east of the Dateline. The risk of La Nina developing in AUG/SEP/OCT 2020 as indicated by several forecast models is well-supported by this cooler subsurface Pacific diagnostic.